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Can someone confirm my maths? Long time since I have had to calculate probabilities!

So the chance of a Conqueror token dropping is 1 in 3 as there are 3 different types. So the odds of other items dropping is 2 in 3.

The odds of no conqueror token dropping on 2 successive bosses is

2/3 * 2/3

Or:

(2/3)^2

or:

Which is 4/9 or 44%.

So we have had more than 40 tokens which calculates as:

(2/3)^40

Which works out as:

9x10^-8

Which I think is:

0.0000000009%

Or am I talking nonsense?!

We had 4 out of 40 or so, doesnt that mean we had around 10% drop chance till this day?

Which means based on current data, theres 90% chance it wont drop :P

we have killed all the token dropper bosses 10 times..

so its 4 out of 50.. (not including BH boss)

so about 92% chance to not drop 1

edit: actually... 1st week we didnt kill the Warmaster, so 49 token drops

so 4 out fo 49 = 91.8% chance to not drop 1

considering half of our raid team consists of these token users, its sucks ass :(

http://www.tankspot.com/showthread.php?77589-T13-Token-Drops-in-Raid

Here's a little further discussion from a blue post on the T13 drops. They at least acknowledge that RNG will, in so many words, screw some players.

http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/topic/3196392331#16

"Ultimately, we recognize that making these set pieces available only as raid drops leaves players much more subject to RNG drop rates/loot rolls, but we have a couple of plans to try and alleviate the sense of burden that stems from the randomness of token drops.

The way tier 13 pieces will be obtained in the 4.3 raid won't be unlike raids past, meaning players will still need to roll on multi-class set tokens. That said, we'll be tweaking the tier 13 10-player drop rates a little bit (for the better) relative to the 25-player version, given that these tier pieces can't be purchased from vendors for Valor Points.

In addition, due to tier pieces not being offered for Valor Points, another thing you'll see in patch 4.3 is a much wider array of desirable non-set loot (covering more slots than prior patches) available from the vendors, for those players who are unlucky with specific token drops, or who aren't interested in raiding -- although, once you get more details about the Raid Finder, we hope you'll find interest in having a go.

I felt this warranted its own response in a separate thread, but for those who missed it, here's my response to the original thread about tier 13 pieces being raid drops only:"

http://us.battle.net/wow/en/forum/to...33?page=23#456
Keep in mind we do intend to allow tier 13 set pieces to drop for those using the upcoming Raid Finder. Similar to the difference between normal and Heroic versions of tier sets, the Raid Finder set will have a lower item level than the normal and Heroic counterparts.

Set pieces from all three difficulty levels can still be mixed and matched for the 2- and 4-piece bonuses.

Evenif i'm still waiting to check the origin of the post, it does sound blue to me.

That said, we'll be tweaking the tier 13 10-player drop rates a little bit (for the better) relative to the 25-player version, given that these tier pieces can't be purchased from vendors for Valor Points.

Makes me think it's our raid setup who does not fit the rng system.

Let's try to have less pallies and priests next time :/

No problem, recruit a shaman and druid healer, and go with no shadow priests and youre set, easy yeah? :O

Nobody wants to check my maths eh?!! :)

I've checked and we have had 3 conqueror tokens out of 49.

Not sure peoples maths is quite right, I think all you have calculated is the percentage of conqueror tokens that have dropped. I was trying to figure out the likelihood of having no conqueror drops at all (out of 40) It's the same calculation as rolling a dice 40 times and never rolling a 5 or 6. The odds are tiny.

Probabilities are multiplicative, so a 1/3 chance followed by another 1/3 chance which makes a 1/9 chance. So the probability of only ever having tokens of 1 type drop in 40 tries would be 1/3 * 1/3 * 1/3 etc.... Or 1/ 3^40.

Another way of saying it is: how many possible combinations are there? There's 3 for the first token, 9 for the second, 18 for the third etc.... which means that in total there are 12,157,665,459,056,928,801 possible permutations. Excluding ordering, there's 861 possible combinations.

My head hurts now...

in fact, it's simple hoggy :P

A boss drops 1 token out 3 :) so we got 1/3 chances to win and 2/3 to loose. It reset every boss also u cant do 1/3*1/3 cause it's a unique draw.

about the chance to not see a token dropping after 40 draw, i wait Geko to solve the equation ;)

Considering our result, it's not RNG, it's a very similar to a wellknown game called Bonto ^^